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FOREX FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS-03/12/21

Themes

  • General mood is “risk off”
  • New Omicron cases in Los Angeles and Hawaii
  • Chinese Caixin Services PMI weaker at 52.1 from talk of 52.6

What’s Moving

A quiet end to a quiet week in Asia today, with players taking the opportunity to adjust positions ahead of tonight’s key US and Canadian Employment numbers. The main flow was unwinding of Dollar longs, with the best beneficiaries (if you could call them that) being the Euro and the AUD.

Stock index futures are slightly weaker after reports of two new Omicron cases in Los Angeles and Hawaii.

The AUD/USD hit its lowest levels in two years today. Technical sales and the weaker Chinese PMI numbers were cited, although we have to say this move was on light volume.

Thoughts

Its all a little bit on a precipice. Quiet session in Asia, leading into U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls in December. We could say where we expect the market to move, but the reality is, it will be defined by the payrolls number and is likely to do very little until then.

USD strength is still the overriding bias.

Data tonight sees:

  • Multiple European Services PMI’s
  • Canadian Employment Change (E: 36.5) and Unemployment Rate (E: 6.6%)
  • U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (E: 553k) and Unemployment Rat (E: 4.5%)

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