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FOREX FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS-06/12/21

Themes

  • General mood is “risk off”
  • US Non-Farm Payrolls mixed; Payrolls weaker at 210k, rate better at 4.2%
  • Fed’s Bullard: Fed should remove monetary policy accommodation

What’s Moving

Interesting volatility in U.S. trade on Friday after the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report comes in mixed. Less people reported receiving employment, but the employment rate still fell, with a massive change in the participation rate the big story. More people left the market looking for jobs.

This saw a whipsaw action on the Big Dollar as the market digested the news. While later trade saw a small dollar bid emerge after hawkish comments from Fed’s Bullard.

The AUD/USD hit fresh two-year lows, while the USD/CAD hit three months highs on better-than-expected Canadian Employment numbers (153.7k from 36.5k talk).

Thoughts

Expect another quiet session in Asia today as the market digests Friday’s moves and U.S. Payrolls data and we continue to edge towards the end of the year. No major data is slated for release in Asia today and position adjustment is certainly expected to be the dominant flow.

European trade also sees little more than German Factory Orders.

Pivot Points

Currency2nd Pvt SPPT1st Pvt SPPTPIVOT1st Pvt RSST2nd Pvt RSST
EUR/USD1.12371.12731.13031.13391.1369
USD/JPY111.87112.24112.92113.29113.97
CHF/USD  0.91340.91540.91860.92060.9238
GBP/USD1.31461.31881.32481.32901.3350
AUD/USD0.69310.69640.70280.70610.7125
CAD/USD1.27061.27721.28081.28741.2910

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